Blog Post 4

What is the relationship between increasing amounts of greenhouse gases and global climate change?
As we increase the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, we are thickening the "blanket" that surrounds our Earth and keeps our world habitable. While it is unknown the exact effect on the climate that increased greenhouses gases will have it is hypothesized that the earth will gradually warm. PBS learning media has a good video clip on how greenhouse gases effect climate change: Global Warming There it is some question as to how this warming temperature will effect cloud cover and therefore effect global climate. Imperfect understanding of climate feedbacks is a major cause of uncertainty and concern about global warming. How can the use of climate models help in the understanding of these uncertainties?
Climate models are run several times with different pollution and technological advances being taken into consideration in order to give scientists a better idea of what may occur in the next 100 years. The article "Accuracy and Uncertainty in Climate Models" helps to explain how climate models can account for a large range of possible scenarios.
With regards to the six emission scenarios, describe any evidence existing today that would suggest to you one or more of the scenarios may occur within the next 100 years. What key uncertainties (climate forcings and feedbacks) would exist for these scenarios as a whole, or specific ones individually?
In regards to the 6 emission scenarios. I think A1 (all 3 types) and B1 would be the most likely to occur. Rapid growth (up to 8.9 billion) is projected by the year 2050 with a decrease following. Economically, I do not see A2 or B2 being as likely because we are such a global economy and changing from importing a large portion of our goods to being self-reliant would affect our market and our jobs.
I don't believe that either of the climate forcings will be effected by any specific scenario; however, I think that as population grows in all 6 scenarios, CO2, methane and NO will rise. In A1B and A1T, less fossil fuels area used so that may decrease the feedback from some of the greenhouse gases. Assuing that population did increase to maximum capacity, I feel it is safe to assume that a global pandemic would not be out of the question and therefore could affect the feedbacks as well.